Allan J. Lichtman

Allan Jay Lichtman (born April 4, 1947) is an American political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, D.C. In 2006, he ran for the U.S. Senate in Maryland.

He was named by American University as the Distinguished Professor of History in 2011, and as Outstanding Scholar/Teacher for 1992–93, the highest faculty award at that school.

He is the author of numerous books and has published over 100 articles. A model he created with statistician Jack Moshman has accurately predicted the popular vote winner of all of the U.S. presidential elections from 1984 to 2016. Even in 2016, Lichtman's model accurately predicted a Clinton win in the popular vote, provided that the third party candidates most likely to draw voters from both parties or solely the Democrats (Jill Stein and Gary Johnson) collectively got less than 5% of the vote. Stein and Johnson combined to get less than 5% of the vote, and Clinton indeed went on to win the popular vote.

Lichtman was born in the Brownsville neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman received his B.A. degree from Brandeis University in History in 1967, and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and Magna Cum Laude while also running track and wrestling for the school. Lichtman received his Ph.D. from Harvard University as a Graduate Prize Fellow in 1973, also in history.

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